Conversation with Ambassador Dr. Raza Muhammad, President Islamabad Policy Research Institute
Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd) has held various prestigious command and staff assignments. He also served as Additional Secretary in the Ministry of Defence Production. After retirement, he was appointed Ambassador of Pakistan to Mauritius, Madagascar, Seychelles, and Comoros. He has been Executive Director Services in the Army welfare Trust and Advisor to President National Defence University Islamabad (NDU). He is now President Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) which is one of the oldest non-partisan think tanks on all facets of National Security, including international relations and law, strategic studies, governance and public policy and economic security in Pakistan. Established in 1999, IPRI is affiliated with the National Security Division, Government of Pakistan. The institute exemplifies two decades of rigorous and timely analysis of crucial strategic agendas and inter-governmental processes that influence national and regional policy community.
Ambassador Raza has also been awarded Hilal-i-Imtiaz (Military) for his meritorious services to the country. He has served in Saudi Arabia, attended Staff Course in Germany and Peacekeeping Course for the Decision-Makers in the USA. He has been on the faculty of premier military institutions such as Pakistan Military Academy Kakul, Command and Staff College Quetta and National Defence University (NDU). Since 2018, he has been teaching in the Faculty of Contemporary Studies at NDU. He is a regular participant in national/ international conferences and seminars as a speaker on China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Kashmir, Afghanistan, Security, and Counter-Terrorism etc.
He has done MPhil in International Relations on “Post 2014 Afghanistan: Implications for Pakistan” and Ph.D. on “CPEC and its Impact on Societal Emancipation of Pakistan and Afghanistan” from the NDU. In an exclusive conversation with “Huashang News” Ambassador Raza discussed at length about the China Pakistan relations, CPEC, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), announcement of India-Middle East-Europe Corridor, changing dynamics of geopolitics in Middle East and its impacts on Pakistan and other topics which are as follows:
Q: Since you have done Ph.D. in “CPEC and its Impact on Societal Emancipation of Pakistan and Afghanistan”, can you brief us about the impacts of CPEC on our society?
Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd): The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a significant infrastructure and economic development project that has the potential to impact both Pakistan and Afghanistan in various ways. While it primarily focuses on enhancing economic connectivity between China and Pakistan, it can have broader implications for the region, including the potential for societal emancipation. CPEC also has the potential to benefit Afghanistan, as it aims to connect Gwadar Port to China via Pakistan's western regions, which border Afghanistan.
Increased connectivity can facilitate trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan, potentially providing Afghanistan with access to the Arabian Sea for trade, which could significantly benefit its economy. Afghanistan is a bridge between Pakistan, Central Asia and Euro Asia, so I thought it should be included in CPEC. People at that time thought that Afghanistan would never join CPEC and until then no one had offered Afghanistan to join the CPEC. If Pakistan and Afghanistan join hands in the CPEC, both the countries will benefit, people of both the countries will benefit and when we have intertwined destinies, our relationship with Afghanistan will be improved and with economic progression and prosperity in Afghanistan, peace will come to the region. This was the whole concept behind my Ph.D. in in “CPEC and its Impact on Societal Emancipation of Pakistan and Afghanistan.”
CPEC has the potential to positively impact the societal emancipation of both Pakistan and Afghanistan through economic development, improved infrastructure, and increased regional connectivity. However, these potential benefits come with challenges and concerns that need to be carefully managed to ensure that the project's impact is as positive as possible for the people of these countries.
Q: How do you see the progress of CPEC in the last 10 years and its impacts on Pakistan? Do you think that the dividends of CPEC have reached the common people of Pakistan?
Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd): As far as the CPEC vision is concerned, it was basically in three phases, Phase one was infrastructure development and energy, because Pakistan was short of energy, there was lots of load shedding going on in the country and secondly infrastructure was poor. I think the people who started the CPEC; they were very wise to decide that unless infrastructure is developed, trade and connectivity will not thrive. As far as energy is concerned, I think 80 to 90 percent of the work is done in this sector. Infrastructure is 80 percent complete, only few projects are left. The most important thing which could have brought jobs and more economic activity was the industrialisation which was to come in the second phase and second phase is also concerned about the socio- economic development which includes women empowerment, clean drinking water, vocational training, schools, hospitals, especially along the western route of CPEC and China had given one billion dollars as grant separately for second phase which is not loan or investment but a grant.
As far as what we have achieved or not, Infrastructure and energy sector have made tremendous progress but Special Economic Zones (SEZs)is the most lacking aspect in case of the CPEC and I would say the major part of the blame should be shared by Pakistan itself, no other country or China is responsible. When we talk of the SEZs, there were laws made, we had to prepare SEZs, after allocation of land there had to some basic facilities, like water, gas, electricity, internet etc. and then you have to invite investment from the people and industry was to be shifted from China as well but what happened was we, unfortunately delayed this too much and it was only in the last government during Imran Khan’s time that three of the SEZs were inaugurated, i.e. Rashakai, Allama Iqbal and Dhabeji but still they are not the way it should be, so this is one point which I want to highlight that here we are lacking and there is a need to accelerate this process for the good of Pakistan, so that the industries can be relocated here not only from China but from anywhere.
As far as the dividends of CPEC to the common people are concerned, dividends of CPEC have reached people through multiple ways. One of the most immediate and tangible benefits of CPEC for the common people has been the creation of jobs. The development of infrastructure projects, such as roads, railways, and ports, has led to increased employment opportunities for local labourers, engineers, and skilled workers. This has not only reduced unemployment rates but also improved the standard of living for many families. One thing which I want to highlight here is incorporation or inclusion of the locals in various projects of CPEC is very important because if the locals are incorporated they will not be a part of it.
Q: How do you view China Pakistan relations and its future and how important is China for Pakistan in terms of regional and international geopolitics?
Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd): I think both countries are very important for each other. First of all if you go back to the history of the Seventies, it was Pakistan which actually brought China into mainstream international politics and thereafter the Chinese leadership has been very wise, they opened their country to the liberal economy and they benefited from the World Trade Organisation and they focused on their economic development. How important are both countries for each other? If you take example of BRI, the CPEC is between two countries, China and Pakistan and there is no third country involved in it and CPEC is the flagship project of BRI.
Additionally, when it comes to global competition between China and the US which started from trade war and now it’s becoming so much strategic, God forbid if there is a tension between both the countries, i.e. China and the US, which one hopes is not there, and there is a problem for Chinese the transport, shipping lanes in the Malacca Strait, the only opening which is left for China with the world would be Gwadar. Although China is trying to go through Myanmar and other places, China is trying to build the maritime Silk route, the economic belt in Central Asia, but this is the shortest route which is available to China. In normal course also for example if China is to bring oil or something from Strait of Hormuz, it is going to take three weeks to reach Chinese shores whereas through Pakistan, it is going to take not more than few days, may be one week at best and if ultimately there are pipelines going from Gwadar to China, then it will again reduce more time and uninterrupted supply. So, it is very important for China to have Pakistan as a friend and as an opening to the sea for trade and in terms of the need, security also.
Secondly, why is China important for Pakistan? Naturally, we need China for economic cooperation, for Defense cooperation, security and all the spheres and also politically at international level. China has been very helpful to Pakistan at the international forums and Pakistan has been also supporting China. It is very important for China that China has the CPEC route and Gwadar available to them. In this heightened times of the global competition, the only country which is important and siding with them in South Asia is Pakistan, otherwise it is India, which has become the strategic partner of the US to contain China, so if Pakistan is not there and India is also against China then it is going to become very difficult for China economically, politically and geo-strategically to actually thrive and become the world power.
Q: US Ambassador Donald Blome recently visited Gwadar. I would like to know how it has been received in Beijing. Are they concerned if the US starts investments in the region?
Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd): Gwadar is the port which is being developed by China and it is being developed at a very great speed. They will operate this project for like 25 to 30 years and then hand it over to Pakistan. The Chinese government, the Chinese Companies have invested a lot in Gwadar with different projects, so presently, there is no space left for anyone to come and invest in the infrastructure projects in Gwadar. Yes, the Gwadar Economic Zone is complete, and is open for investment for everyone whether it is the US or any other country. We recently heard that Saudi Arabia is going to invest there, so anyone can come and invest there.
As far as the visit of the US Ambassador is concerned, I am not aware of the objective of the visit but I think it could be symbolic also, that Gwadar is being seen perhaps only as a project where China is helping. It may be symbolic that they want to be seen in Gwadar. Additionally, it could be possible that they also want to invest in Gwadar and help Pakistan.
The US Ambassador’s visit to Gwadar will neither affect China Pakistan relations nor will it cause any harm to CPEC projects in Gwadar. In my opinion, the US is not interested in investing billions of dollars in Pakistan. China is not concerned about the US Ambassadors visit to Gwadar, they say if the US Ambassador is visiting today, tomorrow someone else could visit and may develop interest in investing in Gwadar. So, I don’t think China will take it in a negative or alarming way.
Q: Pakistan lacks one window operation for setting up a business. To establish a company, Chinese investors need to go to the Board of Investment, Security and Exchange Commission Pakistan, the relevant ministry, and the State Bank of Pakistan, through the authorized dealer (the bank). This process, when successful, takes months and requires detailed documentation at each stage, much of which has to be notarized by the Pakistan Embassy in Beijing. For Chinese investors, this is a painful process. It was expected that with the formation of the CPEC Authority (disbanded now), the one-window solution would be addressed. In fact, it made matters worse by adding yet another layer to approval processes. Moreover, the Pakistan Government currently lacks the capacity to expedite projects. Further disruptions are caused by constant personnel changes at the Ministries responsible for monitoring and facilitating CPEC projects. What are your views on that and how can the issue be resolved?
Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd): A single one liner for your observation and question is that the concerns of Chinese companies are genuine and this needs an urgent attention of the government of Pakistan. Whether you name it CPEC Authority, whether it is under SIFC, you create a division within the Planning Ministry or whatever you want to name it, there is an urgent need for a one window operation facility for foreign investors especially for Chinese investors. This step of one window operation should have started ten years ago. It is because of our internal issues that we are lagging on this. Additionally, I have suggested to the Minister and other relevant people also, privatize these SEZs. Give the SEZs to our own bigger entrepreneurs, for example, one big group of Pakistan is given one economic zone, Faisalabad is a textile hub, let’s say, it is given to APTMA (All Pakistan Textile Mills Association) and say you develop it and similarly Rashakai and so on and so forth. The second option is to give SEZs to Chinese companies, but it has to be done quickly at a fast pace, I agree with the observations and I am for it that we should be hurrying. The current state of SEZs in Pakistan is discouraging the investors in this regard. It should be developed as a real estate project.
Q: In a recent G-20 summit in Delhi, India-Middle East-Europe Corridor was announced, do you think that this announcement is to counter the Belt and Road Initiative?
Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd): It is not for the first time that such a project has been announced. If you remember “2018 Build Act (Better Utilisation of Investments leading to Development)” and “2021 B3W (Bring Back Better World)” and now this India-Middle East-Europe Corridor is announced. Let’s be very sure, as far as the sea linkages are concerned, they would be available to them if they want to invest that much. Like earlier project announcements as I mentioned, billions of dollars were announced for the investments but not a penny has come. This India-Middle East-Europe Corridor project, good to announce, good to say, but what has come on ground? When you talk of the Belt and Road Initiative, there is so much which is on ground and there are 150 countries and 32 International Organisations which are part of the Belt and Road initiative and billions of dollars has been invested in this mega project. My opinion is that it is just rhetoric; just an announcement and I do not foresee it becoming a reality. Unless you have Pakistan in it, India cannot succeed in any connectivity project because only sea connectivity is already there; land connectivity is only through Pakistan. If Pakistan is in, only then India or South Asia can be connected to the world.
Additionally, this whole thing (announcement) has been done to please the US because they have said Israel will also be part of this project and the US will also be there and they want to portray it as a counter or alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative, let’s see what happens? I am a little skeptical.
Q: How do you see the changing dynamics of geopolitics of Middle East and its impacts on Pakistan given that Crown Prince and MBS of Saudi Arabia Mohammad Bin Suleiman is apparently about to recognise Israel with some other Muslim countries? In that situation where Pakistan will stand?
Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd): About the dynamics of Middle East geopolitics and its impacts on Pakistan, first of all lots of credit goes to China for their great diplomacy and very wisely and quietly done without announcement, they have brokered a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia which is in the best interest of region as well as for Pakistan. There would be lot of resistance to it, there would be lot of hurdles to it but I think this is one of the wonderful things which have been done in the Middle East and it will have good effects on Pakistan as Pakistan has very good relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran and China had sign an agreement of 450 billion dollars which was signed in 2020. It was for the development of Chabahar and a Corridor from Iran and Afghanistan to Central Asia. Before that, India, Iran and Afghanistan had signed a trilateral agreement for 21 billion dollars to develop a corridor and this corridor was not to be made a fresh, but the existing road and railways structures were to be connected. After the sanctions on Iran, and India siding with the US against China, that project was delayed which created a vacuum, thus China and Iran came closer and signed an agreement. I am sure that agreement is progressing. If China has similar kind of stakes in Chabahar as in Gwadar, it is developing a corridor through Iran, which is not being propagated so much but it is going to ultimately become the complimentary or supporting corridor of CPEC. Chabahar which was a competitive port would become a sister port and ultimately both the corridors, one from Iran, one from Pakistan, culminates in Afghanistan, it is going to benefit Pakistan and other regional countries in multiple ways. India will not be able to stay away from this corridor for long, because it is going to be very beneficial for India itself also to join the Belt and Road Initiative.
About possible recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia, I will reiterate the statement of our Foreign Office that recognition of Israel is actually linked with the Palestinian cause.
Q: What are your views on the recent India-Canada standoff in view of killing of a Sikh leader in India by the agents of India as claimed by Canada, since India is involved in such killings and grave human right violations in Indian Occupied Kashmir for decades and no major country was concerned, do you see some different attitude from these countries towards India this time?
Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd): A person like Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister of Canada, who represents a very democratic country with human, social and democratic values with a sense of providing security to their own citizens have announced this on the floor of the Parliament that India is involved in killing of a Canadian citizen, that means, they have done the homework before announcing this. Secondly, Five Eyes’ countries (US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and UK) have also confirmed the intelligence of India’s involvement. Now, how is it different from Occupied Kashmir? It is actually no different, they are doing too much human right violations in Indian Occupied Kashmir, but it is not effecting the liberal or western world but now, they have been affected and a country like India or any country going into a western country which is well develop and Canada is a close partner and friend of the US, so they will never ever allow this illegal thing happening on their soil. If this is allowed this time, the Indian intelligence agency RAW would go to other countries like US, UK or elsewhere with the same pattern and continue this. This is actually an infringement on the sovereignty of Canada. This is not going to be easy for India to escape, I think, India will have to take action on this and nominated people have to be taken to the courts, tried and those responsible will have to be punished to pacify Canada and other Five Eye countries.
Q: Who is going to represent Pakistan in the Third Belt and Road Forum to be held in Beijing in October? What is your message for this mega event where more than 100 countries have confirmed their Participation?
Ambassador Dr. Major General Raza Muhammad (Retd): Pakistan is going to participate in the Third Belt and Road Forum in a big way. A large delegation from Pakistan will be attending the forum as China has invited many people from Pakistan. The Prime Minister and relevant planning ministry officials are expected to visit China in October. The decision has not been finalized yet about who will lead the Pakistan delegation but Pakistan is looking forward to attending the forum.
Editor: Tahir Murtaza
